OPEC meeting spreads good crude oil hopes for Italian referendum

Iranian oil minister Zangane said that OPEC is close to reaching an agreement; Iran will not freeze production, and there are other arrangements.

OPEC Secretary-General Balkin reiterated that OPEC hopes to reach an agreement.

The UAE oil minister Mazrui also expressed his expectation that the OPEC meeting will produce positive results.

Saudi Energy Minister Falih said that there will be an OPEC agreement.

☆17:00 OPEC Conference Opening Ceremony Double Happiness ☆

Good news 1: Iraq is preparing to cut production

Iraqi oil captain said at the opening ceremony of the OPEC meeting that good results have been achieved so far; the results of the OPEC meeting are expected to be fruitful; a production reduction agreement will be reached; Iraq agrees to cut production; OPEC oil chief agreed to cut production; OPEC agreement will continue 6 months; hope to reduce production capacity to push oil prices to more than 55 US dollars / barrel.

Contrast: Iraq has always hoped to be able to cut production, and even threatened to increase production in 2017, which once put pressure on oil prices.

Good news 2: Saudi Arabia accepts Iran to cut production, in order to increase the possibility of reducing production

Saudi Energy Minister Falih also said before the ministers closed-door meeting that it is acceptable for Iran to freeze production before the sanctions. If no agreement is reached, the recovery of the oil market will be slower and the fundamentals will still move in the right direction. Waiting for the oil market to recover on its own is not a bad result; it agrees to give Iran the right to cut production and increase the possibility of reaching a production reduction agreement.

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Contrast: Previously, the market has been worried that the hostile relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran will cause trouble for the production reduction agreement. Saudi Arabia’s latest statement has greatly eased market concerns.

☆19:00 Ministerial closed-door meeting is in good progress again☆

According to the inspection, the above two good news were sent out before the OPEC ministers held a closed-door meeting. After the closed meeting of the OPEC ministers at 19:00 Beijing time, there was still good news coming from the market to further improve the market agreement. Expectations.

Good news 3: Iran’s oil minister said that Russia has changed its view and is preparing to cut production.

Iranian oil minister Zangane said that Iran and Iran are ready to compromise; OPEC should rely on second-hand sources; Russia is expected to agree to cut production after the OPEC resolution; reiterated that OPEC should cut production by 100-1.2 million barrels per day; Russia changed its view and prepared to cut production

Contrast: Previously, the market generally believed that Russia was more inclined to freeze production than to cut production; the Iranian oil captain’s position made the crude oil bulls greatly encouraged.

Good news 4: Russia is expected to join the production reduction agreement, reducing production or exceeding expectations

According to sources familiar with the Russian idea, if OPEC reached a production reduction agreement to allocate production quotas to the member states, then Russia is ready to join the agreement, which is more flexible than crude oil production, including the possibility of reducing its production. In addition, Russia is optimistic that OPEC will reach an agreement in Vienna.

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The source also pointed out that the focus of OPEC's discussion now is to reduce production by 1.4 million barrels per day, which is larger than expected. Non-OPEC countries may cut production by 600,000 barrels per day, of which Russia will reduce production by about 400,000 barrels per day.

Contrast: The original market's expectations for production cuts include the previous agreement reached by Algeria to reduce production by 1 million barrels per day or less. The focus now is to reduce production by 1.4 million barrels. If the agreement is reached, it will be more conducive to alleviating oversupply.

Good news 5: Oil-producing countries discuss specific production reduction details and further increase the possibility of reaching an agreement

According to three sources familiar with the incident, Saudi Arabia has accepted Iran's crude oil production to about 3.9 million barrels per day under the supply agreement, and countries are currently discussing the agreement in Vienna.

Stimulated by a lot of good news, US oil broke through the resistance of the four integers of 46, 47, 48, 49 US dollars, the highest hit 49.12 US dollars / barrel, an increase of about 8.60%; the main oil contract continued to break through 48, 49, The resistance of the four integers of $50 and $51 rose more than 8% and refreshed a one-month high to $51.40/barrel. International oil prices are expected to record the biggest one-day gain since August 27, 2015.

☆ 21:18 OPEC representatives spread the news of a reduction of 1.2 million barrels ☆

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On behalf of the OPEC representative, OPEC reached a crude oil production reduction agreement, and OPEC agreed to cut crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day.

However, the news did not cause oil prices to rise again. The market is still waiting for 23:00 or so. OPEC Chairman and Secretary General will preside over the press conference.

According to OPEC sources, OPEC oil captains are still discussing the details of production cuts, including the situation in Iraq.

Amrita Sen, principal analyst at Aspects of London Energy Watch, believes that an 8% increase indicates that many people have confidence in reaching an agreement, but if the results reverse, the selling sentiment will be more intense.

[Yellow Bulls hopes for the Italian referendum]

Spot gold weakened slightly on Wednesday, as rising oil prices are expected to push up inflation and risk appetite, and US ADP data in November is relatively optimistic, gold prices once fell back to around $1,180, but due to Sunday (December 4) Italy held constitutional reforms The referendum of the referendum, the Italian Prime Minister is facing the risk of stepping down, increasing the uncertainty of European economic development, and the safe-haven demand for gold is expected to heat up over the weekend.

It is observed that the constitutional referendum initiated by the current Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi on December 4 is likely to become a black swan event affecting the world like the Brexit referendum. Although on the surface, Italy is holding a referendum on the “constitutional reform bill”, it is significantly different from the UK, but in fact, Italy’s constitutional referendum has changed the European landscape like the Brexit referendum.

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According to the latest poll data, among the voters who intend to vote, the number of people who do not support constitutional reform is 55%, and the supporters only account for 45%. In addition, a large number of voters have yet to make a final decision.

Deutsche Bank had expected that, given the constitutional reform referendum and its political consequences, the Italian bank's share price will remain volatile in the short term; and that concerns surrounding the country's high non-performing loans will continue to adversely affect market sentiment.

☆ADP in the United States is optimistic, PCE meets expectations, and personal spending is not performing well☆

The data shows that the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 216,000 in November, which is better than market expectations. It is expected to increase by 165,000 and the previous value will increase by 147,000.

Moody's chief economist Jandie commented that the employment of enterprises increased sharply in November, and the uncertainty of elections and employment was basically non-existent; although the total seasonal employment is not higher than last year, there is enough labor to meet Seasonal needs.

The data also showed that the US core PCE price index increased by 1.7% in October, in line with market expectations.

However, the data also showed that the monthly personal consumption rate in the United States increased by only 0.3% in October, which was less than market expectations. The expected and previous values ​​were both increased by 0.5%.

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Reuters commented that although the family's income from savings increased to a seven-month high, the US personal consumption expenditure in October was less than expected, but still strong enough to support economic growth in the fourth quarter; before the real estate, manufacturing, job market and inflation data are The performance was good, suggesting that the US economy remained kinetic at the beginning of the fourth quarter after experiencing the fastest growth rate in the past two years in the third quarter.

The US dollar index is still relatively firm on Wednesday. Currently trading around 101.15, it still has a strong suppression of gold prices.

Remind that, given that international oil prices are expected to record the biggest one-day gain in more than a year, it will help the global stock market to rise, which puts gold prices in the short-term to face the risk of dropping again to $1,170.

Pay attention to mobile phone gold investment crude oil (http://m.cngold.org/energy/), the latest news on oil price adjustment is always available.

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