[SMM analysis] macro-good trade war worries to cool down non-ferrous metals rebound, Shanghai zinc led more than 1%

SMM March 27th: Nonferrous metals differentiated in the afternoon, Shanghai nickel and tin fell slightly, among which Huxi shocked down; Shanghai zinc closed up 1.44%, the gains narrowed slightly, Shanghai aluminum and lead rose nearly 1%, and Shanghai copper rose slightly. In the black sector, coke fluctuated and fell, falling green by 0.67% in the afternoon; the thread rose more than 2%, the hot coil closed up 1.61%, the iron ore rose more than 1%, and the coking coal rose nearly 1%. Crude oil oscillated down more than 2% today.

The impact of trade friction escalation on non-ferrous metals is more manifested in the macro-environment. With the Sino-US trade war worries, the domestic and foreign non-ferrous metals rebounded. Lun copper shed a three-month low on Monday, although LME data showed copper inventories rose to 352,750 tons. This year's registered warehouse receipts inventory almost doubled, the highest level since September 2016. After the Shanghai copper opened, it rose linearly and rebounded from the low of eight months, but failed to return to the 50,000 mark and closed at 49,620 yuan. Shanghai zinc is still the strongest variety of metals, and it is hovering at 25,000 in the future. From the import data, China's zinc imports in February increased by 151%. With the recovery of the consumer side, the domestic zinc ingot inventory as a whole has stabilized and declined, and later destocking or further acceleration, giving zinc price support.

Crude oil futures rose 3.34% on the first day of trading, and then retreated at night and today's white plate, closing at 424 yuan, down 2.26%, but still higher than the benchmark price of 416 yuan, turnover of more than 40,000 hands in two consecutive days. At present, WTI crude oil has stood at $65/barrel, which has promoted the expectation of rising crude oil futures to some extent. And the domestic crude oil trend will continue to follow the international oil price in the short term. The main refineries and other refining companies such as Sinopec and PetroChina have increased the ex-factory price of gasoline and diesel, ranging from 1% to 3%. The overall oil industry chain has warmed up, and the strength of crude oil is not a "one-man show."

Today's capital flow

Today's funds are relatively stable, with 436 million funds flowing into the market, and the coal sector has won the first place with 274 million capital blessings. Among them, coke monopolized 254 million yuan, ranking first in commodities. Shanghai copper followed closely with 262 million yuan.

SMM analyst's brief review on March 27

Copper: Shanghai copper main force 1805 contract opened at 49,320 yuan / ton today, the disk was boosted by the external disk, plus some short profits, the copper price quickly rose to 4,9780 yuan / ton, breaking through the daily average. After the rise of power is insufficient, Shanghai copper fell slightly, finishing at 49,670 yuan / ton line, short positions to lighten up. Later, some of the long positions were brought into the market, with the intention of pulling up the price of copper. After the high point of 49,890 yuan/ton, it fell again. The center of gravity moved down slightly. Shanghai copper fluctuated along the 49,650 yuan/ton, and the market fell slightly, closing at 49,620 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. Volume decreased by 91,198 lots to 328,000 hands, and warehouses decreased by 8,800 lots to 272,000 hands. Shanghai copper 1804, 1805 contract a total of 19,478 hands, Shanghai copper 1806, 1807 contract a total of 20,556 hands, the main position moved backwards. Today, the main force of Shanghai copper is running above the average daily line. Although it has a small increase, it has not yet touched the 5-day moving average. The KDJ indicator is in the lower position and tends to contract. Compared with yesterday, it is more divergent from the lower rail of the Bollinger track. On the macro level, concerns about trade wars have slowed down and bullish copper prices. However, with the continuous outflow of funds, it is unable to provide strong upward momentum. It is expected that copper prices will stabilize at a low level in the near future. In the evening, he paid attention to the US March Conference Committee Consumer Confidence Index and the Atlanta Fed President Bostic (with voting rights). (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network Wang Wenhao)

Aluminum : The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 13,720 yuan / ton. After the opening, the bulls continued their strong night. After the high position, some of them profited and closed, and the low price of aluminum reached 13,760 yuan / ton. Then, as the market floated red, the air level exceeded, the high position touched 13,890 yuan / ton, the end of the disk closed at 13,825 yuan / ton, still below all the daily average. Shanghai Aluminum Index positions decreased by 17,998 hands to 759,650 hands. Short-term aluminum prices are still mainly affected by the macro-level Sino-US trade war. Today's trade war has eased, and short positions have fled. Shanghai Aluminum also rebounded with the broader market. In the evening, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to continue its strength. However, before the Sino-US talks have no substantive progress, the above-mentioned 5-day moving average pressure is still relatively large. At night, attention will be paid to the progress of the Sino-US trade war and the above 5-day moving average test. (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals NetEase)

Lead : In the day, the Shanghai main lead 1805 contract opened at 18,475 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the session, Shanghai Zinc rose strongly, driving Shanghai's lead to fluctuate in the morning, and successively climbed the 5, 10, and 20-day lines, and once climbed to 18,665 yuan / ton. After the long position profit reduction, Shanghai lead shocked down, after the basic fluctuations in the 18585 line, and finally closed at 18,570 yuan / ton, up 160 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.87%, the volume decreased by 3,886 hands to 60024 hands, the increase in positions From 1,282 hands to 49,756 hands, the capital flowed to 12.72 million yuan. The Sino-US trade war crisis has eased. Today, the black line and non-ferrous metals generally rose. The Shanghai lead was closed to the Yang line. In the evening, Shanghai lead or the test was under the support of 18,500 yuan. In the evening, Shanghai lead or shock consolidation. (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network Li Daisheng)

Zinc: The main Shanghai 1 zinc contract opened at 24,995 yuan / ton in the day, the initial short position on the opening of the disk to measure the upside, Shanghai zinc pulled up and touched high 25090 yuan / ton that exhausted, long and short around 25,000 yuan / ton integer Saw saw, the upper and lower amplitude is 50 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the long-term lightening of the positions was strengthened. The center of gravity of Shanghai zinc was slightly reduced to 24,950 yuan/ton, and the amplitude was narrowed. The final increase was 24,950 yuan / ton, up 310 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.26%, the volume decreased by 92,524 hands to 548,000 hands, the position decreased by 12,834 hands to 209,000 hands. During the day, Shanghai Zinc continued its strong trend of night trading and tried to stand firm at 25,000 yuan/ton. It recorded a long shadow on the Yangzhu highlighting weakness, and the long and short differences intensified. In the evening, it will stand above the 5 and 10 day moving averages, but It is a little difficult to stand firm at 25,000 yuan/ton. (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network Li Ling)

Tin : Last night, the Shanghai 1271 contract was boosted by the external disk and stabilized at a low level, mainly at around 142,500 yuan/ton. Today, it opened at 142,750 yuan/ton, and the market quickly rose to 143,230 yuan/ton. After that, the bulls continued to lighten up their positions. The shock fell, and the lowest hit in the afternoon was 141,660 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 14,1920 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton from the previous day's settlement price, a decrease of 0.06%. The turnover of 13,352 was reduced by 4,556 lots, and the number of positions was 21,556, which was 494 lots. Today, domestic industrial products are mostly warmer, and non-ferrous metals are rising at different levels. The trend of Shanghai-Tianxi is still weak, running below the averages. The short-term risk is not ruled out, and the support below is 140,000 yuan/ton. (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network Xiaofeng)

Nickel: Today, Shanghai Nickel 1805 opened at 96,530 yuan / ton. China and the United States intend to conduct trade negotiations to ease anxiety. Basic metals generally stopped falling and stabilized. The opening shorts drastically reduced their positions. Shanghai nickel jumped across the daily average line and then continued to fluctuate and rose. At midday, Shanghai nickel touched up to 97,980 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the shorts returned to the market, and Shanghai Nickel retreated some of its gains, fluctuating within a narrow range around 97,100 yuan/ton, closing at 97,210 yuan/ton. All day, the Shanghai nickel main contract 1805 closed at the Xiaoyin line, which was 360 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day's settlement price, a decrease of 0.37%. Volume decreased by 129,000 hands to 289,000 hands, and positions decreased by 19,000 hands to 295,000 hands. The daily technical indicator KDJ has an upward trend, the MACD green column has become longer, and the daily capital outflow has reached 111 million yuan. At night, whether Shanghai nickel can stabilize in this place. In the evening, pay attention to the US Consumer Confidence Index for the March Conference. (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network Gaochun)

*Shanghai colored