Domestic and foreign cotton prices doubled first, and “cards” lived in the transformation of the textile industry

The driving force for the growth of China's textile and apparel exports is shifting from quantity-driven to price-driven. From January to September of this year, after deducting price factors, the actual export volume increased by only 2.8%, which means that the export volume of many products has stagnated or even dropped year-on-year.

In the 2010-2011 cotton year, domestic and foreign cotton prices fluctuate dramatically, which has seriously affected the pace of transformation and upgrading of the textile industry. Last year, due to soaring cotton prices, many factory managers are concerned about cotton, because the benefits of cotton operations far exceed the profits from his technological transformation and management upgrades.

In the first three quarters of this year, under the influence of unfavorable factors such as the violent fluctuations in the prices of raw materials such as cotton and the slow recovery in the international market, the cumulative growth rate of China's textile industry output remained at around 30%. However, Wang Tiankai, chairman of the China National Textile and Apparel Industry Federation, frankly stated: “This shows that the structural adjustment of the textile industry is beginning to take off. Some advantageous companies already have bargaining power, and they also indicate that our market environment is increasingly complex, and the general processing industry of the textile industry There are still huge risks, and in particular stabilizing cotton prices has become a major issue affecting the industry as a whole. The industrial chain must be rationalized as soon as possible."

Affected by factors such as rising cost of comprehensive factors and tightening funds, the growth rate of the industry has been falling month by month. In the first three quarters of this year, the production of China's textile industry has grown at a faster rate compared to the same period of last year, but the trend of production slowdown has become obvious. From January to September, China's textile enterprises above designated size cumulatively achieved a total industrial output value of 3,957.793 billion yuan, an increase of 28.98% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.05 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the first half of the year and 2.64 percentage points lower than the first quarter.

The support role of the domestic demand market for the operation of China's textile industry has been further consolidated. In the first three quarters, the sales value of textile enterprises above designated size was 3.8671 trillion yuan, up 29.22% year-on-year, of which domestic sales amounted to 3196.97 billion yuan, up 32.04% year-on-year, and domestic sales accounted for 82.67% of total output value, up 1.77 percentage points year-on-year.

With the continued strong domestic sales, accelerated structural adjustment within the industry, and improved quality of operations, the profitability of China's textile enterprises increased compared with the same period of last year. From January to August, total accumulated profits of textile enterprises above the designated size were 1670.27. Billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, profit growth outperformed sales growth. In the same period, the overall industry profit margin was 4.99%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points over the same period of last year.

However, due to factors such as rising cost of comprehensive factors and tightening funds, the profit growth rate has continued to fall. From January to August, the growth rate of profit fell by 4.78 percentage points from the first half of the year, and dropped by 17.2 percentage points from the first quarter.

The export growth continued the declining trend. The export volume of cotton yarn and cotton woven garments decreased by 24.5% and 10.5% year-on-year, respectively.

Since this year, the international comparative advantage of China's textile industry has not been significantly weakened due to various negative factors at home and abroad. In the first three quarters, the trade surplus of textiles and garments reached 173.564 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 24.77% over the same period of last year, and the share of the national trade surplus also increased from 115% to 162%.

"China's rapid growth in textile and apparel exports is changing from a quantity-driven model to a price-driven model." Wang Tiankai said that from January to September of this year, China's total textile and apparel exports reached US$ 190.717 billion, an increase of approximately 24% year-on-year. Among them, the export price of textile and clothing increased by 20.9%. After deducting price factors, the actual export volume increased by only 2.8%. Among these factors, there are factors such as the increase in the overall cost of raw materials and labor, which have caused price increases, and the relative increase in overall product bargaining power.

However, the increase in export value is mainly driven by prices, which means that the export volume of many products has stagnated or even decreased year-on-year, among which the cotton products stand out. In the first three quarters, the export volume of cotton yarn, cotton cloth, cotton knitted garments and cotton woven garments decreased by 24.5%, 3.3%, 3.1% and 10.5% respectively.

In addition, export growth continues the downward trend. Excluding the Spring Festival factor, China's textile and clothing export growth rate reached the peak of this year in March and began to decline in April. After a slight warming in July, it fell to a new low this year in September, and the growth rate of textile exports fell to 16.5%. The growth rate of apparel exports fell to 13.8%.

The soaring and slumping of cotton prices affect the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry. It is also necessary to straighten out the 2010-2011 cotton year of the industrial chain as soon as possible. Affected by such factors as excess liquidity in the global economy, slow recovery of the world economy, and restrictions on exports by some countries, domestic and foreign cotton prices are presented. History of the rare "first doubled, the back waist" wave dynamics.

The sharp fluctuations in cotton prices have seriously affected China's textile industry. "There is no price fluctuation in the market competition, but there is no worse than the severe price fluctuations. The cotton price issue has become the biggest problem in the textile industry at present." Wang Tiankai introduced that due to the soaring prices of cotton, cotton, chemical fiber, clothing, home textile, All sectors of the textile machinery industry are under attack.

The soaring and plunging cotton prices have affected the pace of transformation and upgrading of the textile industry to a large extent. “Last year, due to soaring cotton prices, many factory managers are concerned about the cotton go, because as long as the cotton works well, it will far exceed the profits of his technical transformation and management upgrades.” Wang Tiankai said that the cotton sliding tax, The original intention of the import quotas and other policies is to protect the interests of cotton farmers, but the market economy needs to rationalize the stakeholders of the industrial chain from the terminal. The prices of cotton yarns in Pakistan and other countries are now cheaper than China's. If they do not cancel the cotton sliding tariff, an import tariff levied on different levels of tariff rates according to market price standards is characterized by low tariff rates and high prices when commodity prices are high. With high tax rates and import quotas, the Chinese textile industry can only import cotton yarns to participate in international competition.

“We have always sought to have a fair competitive environment and pursue a relatively stable price for cotton. If we rely on imported cotton yarn, the cotton spinning industry will fall, and no one will buy cotton. The cotton farmers will be left to die. Therefore, the cotton issue should jump out of the agricultural and textile industries. The interests of the pattern to study, rationalize the entire industry chain." Wang Tiankai said.

“**” has become a common problem for enterprises. In addition to the large fluctuations in cotton, ** has become another difficult problem affecting the operation of the textile industry. The monetary tightening policies that have been frequently introduced this year have led to an excessive increase in the cost of industry ** and a significant increase in interest expenses. This has also made the ** interest rate of private credit funds “increase.”

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August, the financial cost of China's textile industry increased by 34.49% year-on-year, far higher than the growth rate of main business income of 4.48 percentage points over the same period. “In the recent research conducted by the Federation, '**' has surpassed 'orders' as the first problem that companies generally reflect.” Wang Tiankai said.