Taishan period: night and October 31 main trading recommendations

Rubber is expected to fall back

In September 017, China's synthetic rubber output was 504,000 tons, down 8.2% year-on-year. From January to September 2017, the cumulative output of China's synthetic rubber industry was 4.317 million tons, an increase of 2.3% compared with the same period last year. The price of RMB mixed rubber fell 100 to 11,300 yuan / ton. In the early period, non-standard arbitrage cargoes gradually arrived in Hong Kong, and the import volume of mixed rubber surged, and the selling pressure in the spot market increased. Downstream with the purchase, the trading situation is general. The operating rate of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 67.29%; the operating rate of semi-steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 69.62%. Hujiao volatility faces the risk of amplification and focuses on market direction choices.

Rubber reported to the cross star on Monday, the intraday volatility of the weak night plate and Tuesday is expected to continue to bear pressure, the operation of the proposed night plate and Tuesday rubber after a small arrangement to choose a short list, Tuesday is expected to continue to fall back to the bottom, short-term operation in the session And in the price back, do a good short-term profit-taking out.

After the rebound of copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel, continue to participate in the empty order

On October 30th, Shanghai was nearing the end of the month, and the holders were desperately trying to cash in and out. Today, the market once again interprets yesterday's rising water and diarrhea. From the morning, the good copper premium is 60-70 yuan/ton, and the line is quickly reduced to 20 yuan. About ton, Pingshui copper turned into a full-scale water, wet copper paste water started at 100 yuan, the transaction was slightly improved, although the inquiry was always active, but the transaction was difficult to see warmth in the bidding, the downstream continued to be a small amount just need, cautiously entering the market . A large amount of imported copper will be put into storage. This week, the warehouse will increase the inventory of about 20,000 tons. The strong willingness to redeem will bring the spot back to a full premium. Today, the copper price in Foshan market has suffered a total setback, leading the decline in non-ferrous metals, and the market has turned cautious. At present, copper manufacturers generally reflect that orders in October are not ideal. In addition, near the end of the month, liquidity is still tight. In the case of continuous decline in copper prices, there is no rush to replenish.

Operation suggestion: copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel oscillated on Monday, zinc and nickel rebounded slightly, and Shanghai copper closed at the cross star. The overall weak market has not changed. After the short-term rebound, the empty single can be intervened again. The night plate and the colored plate open on Tuesday. After the rebound, the short position will continue to be short, and it is expected that the pressure will fall back and the rallies will be decisively laid out.

Thread iron ore is expected to fall sharply

The State Council held a press conference to introduce the development of the industrial communications industry in the first three quarters of 2017. Zheng Lixin, director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the structural reform of the industrial supply side was actively promoted. The task of de-capacity of steel was accelerated. The de-capacity of steel has been completed, and the task of banned “strip steel” according to law is completed on schedule. According to the latest data of China Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in key steel enterprises in the country in early September was 1,867,500 tons, an increase of 1.1% from the previous month. At the end of September, the steel inventories of key steel enterprises were 12.358 million tons, an increase of 0.27% from the end of the previous decade. Spot market: 20mm HRB400 rebar Shanghai offer 3940 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton; Guangzhou offer 4420 yuan / ton, flat; Beijing offer 3790 yuan / ton, flat; Fuzhou offer 4410 yuan / ton, unchanged.

Threaded steel ore rebounded on Monday and fell back. Both of them reported to the cross star at the end of the day. At present, the short-term thread iron ore mine is expected to continue to fall. If the operation is in the middle of the operation, it is recommended that the threaded iron ore be sorted out and continue to be short. And on Tuesday, threaded iron ore is expected to continue to fall, and the empty orders will be focused on operations.

Plastic pp and pvc are not weak, and will continue to fall

US oil rose 2.4% for the first time in more than two years. On the morning of October 28, Beijing time, according to the US financial network, station MarketWatch reported that crude oil futures prices closed up on Friday, including international Brent oil prices. For the first time in more than a year, it closed above $60 a barrel, and the US benchmark crude oil futures price also hit the highest closing price in nearly eight months. The market speculated that OPEC and other oil-producing countries will agree to extend the production reduction agreement until the end of next year, thus supporting oil prices. Brent crude oil futures for December delivery on the London ICE European Futures Exchange rose $1.14 to close at $60.44 a barrel, or 1.9%. Calculated on a monthly basis, this means that Brent crude has hit its highest closing price since July 2015.

Operation suggestion: Plastic pp fell back on the yin on Monday, pvc disk performance rebounded strongly, the overall view of the chemical sector is currently empty, short-term is expected to further decline, Tuesday's ideas continue to short, on Tuesday is expected to continue to lower the pressure, The short-term idea remains the same.

Bean 粕 粕 short-term operation

The progress of the US soybean harvest was faster than expected, the new bean market continued to increase, and the drought in northern Brazil eased the outlook to improve the soybean yield in Brazil, which kept the US soybeans under pressure. The poor atmosphere in the external market has, to a certain extent, put pressure on the price trend of bean products, including soybean meal. The fundamentals of domestic soybean meal are generally weaker. From November to December, huge imported soybeans will be concentrated in Hong Kong. The operating rate of oil mills will pick up. The supply pressure of soybean meal will be reappeared, and there is still a risk of falling back. At present, the US soybeans are in the harvesting period. Recently, due to the sunny and dry weather, farmers have accelerated the progress of soybean harvesting. The new beans were put on the market in batches, causing the soybean spot market price to fall, which in turn dragged the price. According to information released by the US Department of Agriculture last Monday, as of October 22, US soybean harvesting completed 70%, higher than analysts' forecast of 64%, US soybeans continue to be under pressure

Operation suggestion: Soybean meal rebounded slightly on Monday, after the recent correction, it has basically reached the 2200 support position. This week, we need to focus on the performance of this position. If you are close to this location, you can participate more than one, so the idea on Tuesday is to buy more than 2200.

Further adjustment of egg short line

On October 30th, the current market sentiment is short-selling, and the varieties that have been broken in the high-altitude cycle in the direction of small market resistance are more likely to make profits. The main contract 1801 suffered a short-term and narrow-range shock after a short-term shock. However, the volume of the warehouse did not change much, and the decline followed closely. After that, it maintained a narrow range of shocks. The market slowed down significantly, the price rebounded slightly, and the trend fell strongly throughout the day, eventually closing at 4290. Compared with yesterday's decline of 51/500kg, the transaction volume was significantly enlarged compared with the previous day, the trading range was widened, the trading atmosphere was active, and the daily line received a small Yinxian line with a small shadow, -11940 lots, with a net outflow of -49.74 million. Another active contract 1805 trend is similar to 1801, but slightly stronger than 1801, the spread narrowed to 445, down 3 from the previous day. The egg prices in the main producing areas have stabilized as a whole, and the weaker regions have gradually decreased. The sales areas in Beijing and Shanghai have remained stable. At present, the egg prices have stabilized, the stocks in the producing areas have not been much, and the sales in the sales areas have improved. However, the wait-and-see attitude still exists. In the short term, the price of eggs has stabilized slightly and fluctuated.

Operation suggestion: Eggs will fall back on yin on Monday. The eggs will fall back for two consecutive trading days. There may be further adjustments on the disk. If the operation is concerned, it is recommended to maintain the short-selling operation to treat the operation. After a small rebound on Tuesday, the machine will participate in the empty order. The eggs are expected to rise. Continue to adjust the fallback, short-term operation in the disk.

Soybean oil palm oil pays attention to the pressure level

The spot market was affected by multiple factors. First, although palm oil stocks continued to rise last week, stock levels were relatively low, and cargo rights were concentrated, which supported prices. Second, the export data of palm oil in the outer disk is good. According to the data of ITS shipping agency, palm oil export volume was 1.178 million tons from October 1 to 25, and 1.085 million tons in the same period last month, an increase of nearly 9%. Third, the US biodiesel policy is facing a “transit opportunity” to increase the international trade price of global oils and fats, which has a pulling effect on the trade price of palm oil. As of October 27, the average domestic spot palm oil price was 5876.7 yuan / ton, the domestic spot price of soybean oil was 6092.1 yuan / ton, the price difference of bean brown was 215.4 yuan / ton, the processing history was low, and the price difference at the beginning of October was 311.2 yuan. At the beginning of September, the price difference was close to 650 yuan / ton. As the weather turns cooler, the price difference between bean brown is narrowed, the advantage is lost, and the proportion of reconciliation is reduced, which will limit the consumption of palm oil in the spot market.

Operational recommendations: Soybean palm oil rebounded on Friday, after the rebound on Monday, the upper pressure gradually appeared, the palm oil pressure is around 5800, the soybean oil pressure is around 6200, and the night plate and the high pressure near the pressure on Tuesday can try to go short. The support below is also obvious. It is a good opportunity to buy near palm oil 5700 and near soybean oil 6100.

Strong methanol, strong and weak, strong and weak

Shanghai Futures Exchange asphalt futures main contract Bu1712 closed at 2482 yuan / ton, up 0 yuan / ton, an increase of 0%, turnover of 461,826 hands. Today opened 2488 yuan / ton, yesterday settled 2482 yuan / ton, holding 403,804 hands. Spot market: Today's domestic asphalt market is not stable, the demand for asphalt in the northern market is sluggish, and some refineries in the northeast have increased their incentives. The price of asphalt has steadily declined, and other regions have less fluctuations. The demand for asphalt in the south has gradually increased. Some of the main refinery shipments have gradually improved. The asphalt price has rebounded slightly, but the asphalt resources are still sufficient. Therefore, most refineries still tend to ship at a stable price. At present, the price of asphalt in Shandong is 2350-2500 yuan / ton, and the price of asphalt in East China is 2400-2550 yuan / ton. The market trend is strong in the south and weak in the north. It is expected that the price of asphalt will be adjusted to different degrees in the later period.

Futures market: Methanol asphalt showed great divergence on Monday. The methanol rushed back to the bottom of the yin asphalt and rebounded to the strong line. The asphalt methanol trend continued to show great differences. The firm guidance plus micro signal: tslq88 night plate and Tuesday basic The operating ideas are treated differently, the asphalt callback continues to buy more than one, and the methanol idea remains short.

Pta ideas are short and remain unchanged

On October 30th, the PX market in Asia fell by US$4/ton, and the closing price was US$831.33/ton FOB Korea and US$849.33/ton CFR China. 2, South Korea SK issued PX November ACP advocacy price execution of 910 US dollars / ton, and October advocacy price is flat. East China mainstream spot and 1801 contract offer intent around 5-10 yuan / ton, warehouse receipts and 1801 contract offer around 10 yuan / ton, negotiated at 5175-5185 yuan / ton. US dollar PTA market cargo offer remained at around 652-655 US dollars / ton, bids maintained at 650-652 US dollars / ton, pta day tour suppliers offer to 670-700 US dollars / ton, limited transaction .

Operation suggestion: pta trading volume on the same day, the fluctuation range is also increased. After the opening, the bottom bottom rebounds and finally returns to the Zhongyang line. After the violent shock on Monday, the pta short-line pressure support has appeared. The upper pressure position is near 5250, and the lower support position is at Near 5150, the basic operation idea is to go up to the vicinity of the pressure position to go short, go down to the support position to buy more orders, and short-term operation on Tuesday.

Cotton fell back and rebounded

The weather in Hubei, Hunan and other cotton areas in the Yangtze River valley turned fine. Cotton farmers actively sold seed cotton, while most cotton enterprises priced and purchased according to the color grade of seed cotton, and some enterprises refused to accept low-grade seed cotton. Due to the impact of rainwater in the early stage, cotton in Hubei and Hunan was seriously affected. The purchase volume of most cotton enterprises was also greatly reduced. Even many cotton enterprises intend to continue to wait and see. In addition, the picking progress of seed cotton in Anqing cotton area in Anhui Province has exceeded 60%. Although the weather is getting better, the current cotton market is still sluggish. During the week (October 21-27), the weather in the Yellow River Basin was fine, which was good for cotton picking and selling. The picking rate of seed cotton in some cotton areas in Hebei exceeded 85%. The previous acquisitions of individual enterprises were suspended slightly, but they have returned to normal in the near future. The daily purchase volume is over 100,000 jin. The local purchase price declined slightly, due to the sluggish sales of lint. It is reported that the local 3129B grade lint price is 15400-15500 yuan / ton, cotton enterprises are basically unprofitable.

Operation suggestion: Cotton rushed back to close the cross on Monday, and the position of cotton is expected to continue to fall back. The operation suggests that the night plate and the rebound on Tuesday will be short, and the position will remain unchanged. .

Coking coal coke weakens, short-term is expected to continue to adjust

Data show that in September 2017, domestic coke production was 36.45 million tons, down 7.1% year-on-year; from January to September, coke production was 331.8 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.2%. Since the first half of the year, steel mills have maintained a good profit, and the operating rate has risen. The demand for coke is strong, which in turn supports coke prices. It can be said that steel mill profits are transferred from downstream to upstream. However, with the arrival of cold weather in winter, the smog problem has once again hit, the production limit of production of peak peaks has increased, and the start-up of steel mills and coke enterprises is limited. The operating rate of coke enterprises is generally sluggish. According to the sample data of 100 typical independent coke enterprises in our steel network statistics, as of the week of October 20, the production capacity of coke enterprises with a capacity of 1 million to 2 million tons, the operating rate is 66%; Less than 1 million tons of coke enterprises, the operating rate is 72%; the production capacity of more than 2 million tons of coke enterprises, the operating rate is 79.35%.

Futures market: coking coal coke fell back on Monday and closed down. Recently, the two have gone out of the market for several consecutive trading days. In the short term, coking coal coke will continue to adjust. In operation, it is suggested that coking coal coke should be treated with a rebound and short operation. Yes, it is recommended to continue the short-sell operation after the night plate and the coke coal coke rebounded on Tuesday.

(Editor: Wu Xiaolin HF106)