"Performance is king" is still the main theme of the three sections of the fourth quarter dance

With the advent of the intensive disclosure period of the 2017 A-shares three quarterly reports, the listed companies' operating results and full-year performance outlook for the first three quarters have received increasing market attention.

At present, the chemical, automotive, and non-ferrous metals industries are the three sectors in which the A-share performance in the third quarter is relatively prominent. From the annual performance forecast, the quality companies in the above three sectors are expected to continue the good momentum of the first three quarters, or Will become one of the targets of the key layout of funds.

Chemicals: Many companies expect annual full-year performance to double

Undoubtedly, chemical industry is one of the most outstanding sectors in the A-share market since 2017. According to the statistics, as of October 27, among the listed companies in the chemical industry that have disclosed the 2017 third quarterly report, 58 net profit doubled in the first three quarters of this year.

Specifically, Black Cat shares 002068, the stock net profit increased by 7728.76% year-on-year, Longyu fuel 603003, stock bar, Chengzhi shares 000990, stock bar, Xuefeng technology 603227, stock bar, Long Yuli, chlor-alkali chemical 600618, stock bar, Zhangzhou Dahua 600230, stock bar, Juhua 600160, stock bar, Guochuang high-tech 002377, stock bar and other three quarterly results, the year-on-year growth rate is also as high as 1000% and above. From the performance forecast of listed companies, Black Cat shares, Jiangshan Chemical 002061, stock bar, Xinghua shares 002109, stock bar, Luxi Chemical 000830, stock bar, Noppin 002215, stock bar and other 29 chemical industry listed companies are expected to achieve full year 2017 The performance has more than doubled.

Wang Xixin, an analyst at Zhongtai Securities, advised investors to pay attention to chemical cycle products. The core logic is that supply is shrinking and demand is improving. On the supply side, excess capacity is eliminated, environmental protection and policy barriers, and capital expenditure growth are low, while demand is low. It is a steady growth. “We believe that there will be further price increases in the leading sub-sectors that are already in tight balance, such as viscose, PVC, carbon black, soda ash, dyes, silicones, etc.”

From the perspective of investment, Wang Xixin recommended to focus on the low valuation of the leader: Wanhua Chemical 600309, stock bar, Sanyou Chemical 600409, stock bar, Zhongtai Chemical 002092, stock bar, black cat shares, Zhejiang Longsheng 600352, stock bar, Shandong Haihua000822, Stocks, Hualu Hengsheng 600426, stocks, Xinan shares 600596, stocks, Binhua shares 601678, stocks and so on. Second-line faucet is also worthy of attention, recommend glyphosate and silicone Xingfa Group 600141, shares, Xinan shares), vitamin brother technology 002562, stock bar, Xinhecheng 002001, shares bar, Yifan Pharmaceutical), and also recommended to pay attention to rubber assistance Agent Yanggu Huatai 300121, shares it), PVC additives, Japanese chemical 300214, stocks), preservative related vinegar shares 603,968, stocks).

Everbright Securities 601788, analyst Zhang Xiaofeng said that it is recommended to continue to focus on the first-line and second-line leaders with reasonable valuation and further enjoyment of growth options in the future: Yangnong Chemical 600486, stock bar, Changqing stock 002391, stock bar, Wanhua Chemical, Tongkun 601233, shares, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical and Xinhecheng.

In addition, he also suggested that Yang Coal Chemical, Garden Bio 300401, stock bar, Xianyi Pharmaceutical 002332, stock bar, Guangji Pharmaceutical 000952, stock bar, red sun 000525, stock bar, Huifeng shares 002496, shares, Sanyou Chemical , Xin'an shares, Black Cat shares, Zhongtai Chemical, Xingfa Group and Juhua shares. The growth stocks recommend lithium battery industry chain and electronic chemicals, it is recommended to focus on the subdivision: Jingrui, Xinlun Technology 002341, stock bar, Jianghuawei, Guangxin materials, Dangsheng Technology 300073, stock bar, Tianci material 002709, stocks, New Zhoubang 300037, stock bar, star source material.

Potential stock selection

Black Cat shares (002068) carbon black prices are expected to remain firm

Black Cat shares are mainly engaged in carbon black and tar refined products. In the first three quarters of this year, its net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 31,883,600 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7728.76%. Yang Chao, an analyst at Great Wall Securities, pointed out that the company's third-quarter performance was brilliant; tire demand grew moderately, and downstream demand for carbon black continued to improve: tire manufacturing was the largest downstream demand terminal for carbon black, and about 67% of carbon black was used for automobile tires. Tire demand continued to grow, and the company's carbon black business was booming. At the same time, the heating season is environmentally upgraded, upstream coal tar is limited, and carbon black prices are expected to remain firm.

Xingfa Group (600141) product price increase is expected to continue

Southwest Securities 600369, stock analyst analyst Aihua said that in 2017, the continued recovery of glyphosate, silicone and fertilizer business led to improved product profitability, which promoted the company's performance. The glyphosate industry has entered a boom cycle, and the company's glyphosate industry chain has a strong advantage. On the other hand, the company's silicone profitability is outstanding. At present, the market price of monoammonium phosphate products has rebounded, and the price has increased by 24% since the low point of the year. Under the expectation that the agricultural product price will be good in the next year, the company's fertilizer business will be booming. Degree is expected to continue to rise.

Brother Technology (002562) new products are injecting power into production

Shen Wan Hongyuan 000166, stock analyst Song Tao pointed out that the concentration of vitamins and intermediates industry continues to increase, prompting product prices continue to rise. The price increase trend of the brother technology company K3 and B1 products has been maintained for one year, and the B3 price increase trend has been maintained for three years. The company fully benefited from the increase in product prices and its performance has increased substantially. In general, Brother Technology is a leading company in vitamin subdivision products. As the environmental protection and high-pressure policy becomes the new normal, the industry competition pattern will continue to be optimized, and the prosperity will continue for a long time. The company extends its industry chain and continuously enriches its product types, injecting new power into long-term development 310,328.

Luxi Chemical (000830) expects high net profit growth throughout the year

Luxi Chemical Company expects net profit for the full year of 2017 to be 15-16.62 billion yuan, an increase of 494%-541%. Southwest Securities analyst Shang Aihua said that the price difference of multiple varieties in the chemical industry rebounded, driving the company's profitability to rebound sharply. In the future, we will also look at the company's capacity expansion and integration. As the company's product prices rose sharply in the third quarter, and some products still have a rising trend, so the profit forecast is raised. It is expected that the compound annual growth rate of net profit will reach 108.89% in the next three years. Under the current Shenwan industry index classification standard, The overall valuation of the chemical and chemical raw materials industry was 38.99 and 33.25 times, and the company's valuation was significantly lower than the industry level.

Automotive: End-market demand continues to pick up

Judging from the information already disclosed, the A-share auto sector listed companies have performed well in the third quarter, and the outstanding performance of this sector is expected to continue throughout the year.

As of October 27, Zotye Motors ranked first in the auto sector with a net profit of 982.85%. The company expects full year-on-year growth in net profit for the year of 2017 to reach 1469.41%.

The significant growth of Zotye's performance is not a case in the industry. The statistics show that as of October 27, Hongte Precision 300176, stocks, Xiyi shares 002265, shares, Longzhou shares 002682, shares, China National Heavy Duty Truck 000951 , stock bar, Wan Liyang 002434, stock bar, Xinquan shares, West Pump shares 002536, stock bar, new coordinates, Jingu shares 002488, stock bar, Guangdong Hongtu 002101, stock bar and other companies have disclosed good news of doubled net profit growth in the third quarter. In addition, Tiancheng Automation 603085, stock bar, Tianrun crankshaft 002283, stock bar and other companies are expected to achieve substantial growth in the full-year performance.

From the industry point of view, Great Wall Securities analyst Li Jinjin said that passenger car sales in September reached 2.343 million units, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year; small-displacement purchase tax preferential policies before the end of the year, the impulse to superimpose the traditional Jinjiu season, bringing the automotive terminal market Demand continues to pick up. However, due to differences in product cycles and layout between car companies, Japanese and German brands in the joint venture brand performed better in September, while sales between independent brands showed significant differentiation. Li Jinjin also pointed out that this week will enter the intensive disclosure period of the three quarterly reports. It is recommended to pay attention to stocks with high profit retention and performance growth. Recommend SAIC Group 600104, stock bar, GAC Group 601238, stock bar and Huayu Automobile 600741. At the same time, it is recommended to actively distribute the parts and components enterprises that benefited from the domestic automatic transmission industry chain, Shuanghuan Transmission 002472, shares, Wanliyang, Ningbo Gaofa 603788, shares and Shuanglin shares 300100, stocks.

Wang Huajun, an analyst at Zhongtai Securities, said that with the arrival of the three quarterly quotes, it is recommended to pay attention to the excellent performance stocks with outstanding performance in the third quarter and the previous oversold. Blue-chip proposal to pay attention to Huayu Automobile, Fuyao Glass 600660, stocks; Volkswagen industry chain recommended to pay attention to Ningbo Huaxiang 002048, stock bar, Xingyu shares 601799, stock bar, Jifeng shares 603997, stocks; early traditional cars, especially automatic gearbox plate callback More, combined with the three quarterly reports, a number of listed companies entered a reasonable valuation price, it is recommended to focus on precision forging technology 300258, stocks, Wan Liyang.

Lin Fan, an analyst at Huajin Securities, said that the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption season, and it is expected to maintain a relatively high-speed growth. The whole vehicle and parts companies in the industrial chain will benefit in depth. It is recommended to recommend SAIC, Huaying Technology 603306, stock bar, Ningbo Gaofa, Top Group 601689, stock bar, Kaizhong shares, precision forging technology.

Potential stock selection

SAIC Group (600104) SAIC Volkswagen welcomes new product cycle

Ping An Securities analyst Wang De'an said that the company's sales in September increased significantly year-on-year, and the public performance was bright; SAIC passenger car sales increased by 41.7%. SAIC-GM GL8 has become an MPV explosion. In October 2017, it is expected to launch six MPV models, GL6, which is expected to enhance SAIC's general profitability. Self-owned brands will be rolled out and word-of-mouth, and it is expected to continue to reduce losses. Compared with the company's current cycle, SAIC's valuation is still low, and the stock price has a margin of safety.

Huayu Automobile (600741) accelerates the improvement of new energy layout

In October of this year, Huayu Automobile announced that it will invest in the establishment of Huaneng Magna Electric Drive System Co., Ltd., whose main products are new energy vehicle electric drive system assembly products. It is expected to be supplied after the project is put into production in 2020. China Merchants Securities 600999, stock analyst Wang Liusheng believes that the establishment of China Magna is an important layout of the company in the field of new energy vehicles, in the future can fully absorb the technology of the core components of Magna electric drive system, from the drive motor to The advancement of the electric drive system has deepened the layout of the new energy vehicle sector and is conducive to synergy with the Huayu electric drive.

Precision Forging Technology (300258) benefits from Volkswagen's new car cycle

Lin Fan, an analyst at Huajin Securities, believes that the company's largest customer is the Volkswagen Group. The company's differential gear capacity cannot be effectively released due to insufficient production staff. It is expected to be resolved in the fourth quarter. The expansion of production capacity will effectively ensure that the company's future performance will continue to be realized. High growth. In addition, the company's new new energy vehicle motor shaft project is expected to start production in the second half of 2018 and begin to contribute. At the same time, the NT business of the outbound M&A is developing well, and it is expected to achieve a target net profit of 17 million yuan this year. The expansion of new energy vehicle motor shafts and NT business will bring a broader space for the company's future development.

Wan Liyang (002434) new product launch helps the future

Guohai Securities 000750, stock analyst Zhou Shaoqian said that the company has formed a comprehensive capacity of 1 million commercial vehicle transmissions and 1.5 million passenger car transmissions, with a rich product line. The passenger car automatic transmission CVT19 is synchronously equipped and matched in many domestic independent automobile manufacturers, and its capacity building is progressing smoothly and will soon reach production. The newly developed AT series products of the company have entered the stage of assembly of the prototype, and the effect has reached the expected level. With the gradual release of the company's MT, CVT, AT and other high-end new products, it will further expand the market and help the company's performance continue to maintain high growth.

Non-ferrous metals: magnetic materials and aluminum processing are optimistic

Up to now, a total of 20 listed companies in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector announced that their net profit for the first three quarters of 2017 increased by more than 100% year-on-year. Among them, China Aluminum, Tin Industry 000960, stock bar, Shenghe resources 600392, stock bar, Suotong development, Jiaozuo Wanfang 000612, shares and other companies' performance increased by more than 500%. Judging from the annual performance forecast, Jingyi shares 002295, the stocks are expected to have the highest annual net profit growth of 575.07%, Hongchuang Holdings is expected to reach a maximum of 253.34%. In addition, Yunnan Yuye 002428, stock bar, Yan Feng Lithium Industry 002460, stock bar, GEM 002340, stock bar, Tibet Everest 600338, stock bar, Sinosteel Tianyuan 002057, stock bar, Jingui Yinye 002716, stock bar and other companies are also expected, 2017 It is expected to achieve a higher performance increase of doubling and above in the whole year.

Galaxy Securities analyst Hua Li believes that the absolute growth rate of the non-ferrous metals industry in the 2017 third quarter is expected to remain at a higher level. “The third-quarter results of the non-ferrous metals industry will continue to maintain high growth rate in the third quarter of 2017. The market will start in the third quarter. From the published performance forecast and related metal price trends, lead, zinc, aluminum, cobalt, tungsten and rare earth plates are listed. The company's three-season report will have a high probability. In the fourth quarter, we predict that the electrolytic aluminum and lead-zinc, which are limited by the heating season, and the cobalt-lithium, which is driven by the demand of new energy vehicles, will still be strong, and the relevant stocks will be listed. Performance will also strengthen."

Huali said that the performance of the three quarterly reports and the metal price expectations in the fourth quarter, optimistic about the aluminum, lead and zinc, cobalt and lithium sectors, recommend China Aluminum, Yun Aluminum shares 000807, stock bar, Nanshan Aluminum 600219, stock bar, Chi Hong zinc é”— 600497, Shares, Tibet Everest, Zhongjin Lingnan 000060, stock bar, Tianqi Lithium Industry 002466, stock bar, Yan Feng Lithium Industry, Huayou Cobalt Industry 603799, stock.

Shen Wong Hongyuan analyst Xu Ruoxu said that although most of the basic metal stocks continued the strong growth of the mid-year report in the first three quarters, the stock price response to the growth was obviously passivated. The sector enters the adjustment phase and recommends magnetic and aluminum processing with more advantageous valuations. Focus on Ningbo Yunsheng 600366, stock bar, Mingtai Aluminum 601677, stock bar and Dongpu shares 600114, stocks, the rest of the positive magnetic material 300224, stock bar, Asia-Pacific technology 002540, stocks also sustainable attention.

Potential stock selection

Mingtai Aluminum (601677) performance redemption valuation switch

Ren Tianhui, an analyst at Dongxing Securities, said that Mingtai Aluminum's single-quarter revenue in the third quarter of 2017 reached a record high. Since 2014, the company has started several fundraising projects. With capacity expansion and product upgrades, the company entered a high growth period in 2016, and the average growth rate of net profit in the past seven quarters reached 50.50%. Optimistic about the company's capacity expansion and product upgrades, the company's performance is expected to continue to maintain steady and high growth, transformation of rail transit equipment manufacturing will significantly enhance the company's profitability, which is conducive to the company's valuation switch.

Cloud Aluminum (000807) earnings are expected to rise rapidly

Guohai Securities analyst Dai Pengju believes that aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise, and the production capacity of Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. continues to increase, and the volume and price are rising. The company's electrolytic aluminum compliance production capacity continues to increase, and the subsequent reserve projects will gradually increase in the future. At the same time, it will benefit from the rapid increase of aluminum prices. The profit and loss of the volume and price will increase rapidly. The new capacity of the company's upstream alumina and carbon anodes will help partially offset the raw materials. The cost pressure of rising prices; in the end, the company adopted hydropower and did not have its own power plant, which was not affected by the negative impact of the government fund and the additional fees paid by the captive power plant.

Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466) will release capacity from next year

GF Securities 000776, stock bar analyst Ju Guoxian pointed out that Tianqi Lithium Company has 51% of the world's largest spodumene mine Talison, lithium concentrate production of about 500,000 tons, future capacity will be expanded to 1.34 million tons, is expected Completion of trial production in the second quarter of 2019. At the same time, Tianqi Australia plans to build 48,000 tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide. The first phase of 24,000 tons has been started in October 2016. It is expected to be completed in October 2018. The second phase of 24,000 tons is in the preliminary feasibility study and part. In the early stage of work, it is expected that the trial production will be completed by the end of 2019. It can be seen that the company has entered the capacity release period since the end of 2018, and the company's performance has ushered in rapid growth.

Chihong Zinc (600497) industry leading performance growth can be expected

Wang Gang, an analyst at Huajin Securities, said that Chihong Zinc is the leader in the lead and zinc industry and has always implemented the strategy of resource first. As of the first half of the year, the company has 72 exploration rights in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, and the mining production is approved. The scale reached 3.83 million tons / year, and there are 35 privileges outside the country, covering an area of ​​160 square kilometers. According to the growth rate of the company's sales volume in the first half of the year and the current trend of lead and zinc prices, it is expected that the growth trend of the second half of the year will continue, and the operating income growth rate of the zinc and lead business can exceed 30%.

(Editor: Sun Lixin HF017)