Reduced output is expected to push up global cotton prices

Although the current global cotton market has large inventories and sufficient market supply, the global cotton price is still strong in the near future. The main reason is that the market is concerned that the global cotton production will decline in the new year, coupled with the current supply of high-quality cotton resources in the market. As a result, cotton prices have generally risen steadily, and Indian cotton prices have been rising more madly.

Since May 3, due to continued sales of State Reserve Cotton, although the supply of domestic cotton market is still slightly tight, the market's bullish sentiment is gradually weakening. However, in the recent week, as the cotton price in India continued to strengthen, the domestic cotton price also started to rise. The main contract price of Zheng cotton not only held the key support at 13,000 yuan/ton, but was also increasing to 13,500 yuan/ton. The price advances and has risen to 13,500 yuan/ton or more in intraday trading in recent trading days.

Market participants believe that the trigger for a rise in domestic cotton prices is that India’s cotton prices continue to rise sharply. This not only increases the confidence of the domestic cotton market, but also increases the competitive advantages of domestic cotton and domestic yarns, especially Under the background of a rapid decline in the number of imported yarns, it has a strong boosting effect on domestic cotton and domestic yarn prices.

It is understood that India's cotton planting area is about 12 million hectares, which accounts for about 37% of the total cotton planting area in the world. Although India's cotton yield is relatively low, Indian cotton still occupies an important position in the global cotton market and is also imported by China. , The main source of cotton yarn, its cotton prices have a greater impact on the domestic cotton market.

According to statistics released by the relevant market institutions, up to now, the cumulative number of new cotton listed in India in 2015/2016 was about 5.44 million tons, accounting for about 95% of the forecasted annual cotton production in India, and the follow-up supply may be insufficient. At the end of April this year, the cotton ex-factory price of cotton in India's domestic cotton mills was around 69 cents per pound, which has now risen to about 78 cents per pound.

Cotton analysts at China CottonNet believe that the leading products of Indian textile companies are shifting towards high-count yarns, combed yarns and blended yarns. The demand for high-quality cotton in the domestic market continues to grow, and the gap widens. At the same time, the sharp decline in India's cotton planting area has caused mills and middlemen to worry about the supply reduction. Due to the conversion of other crops by farmers, India’s cotton acreage in 2016/2017 is expected to decrease by 7%, which is expected to be around 11 million hectares. This is the lowest acreage since 2009/2010, and some traders and cotton-affiliated enterprises have started to actively Purchasing and hoarding cotton. In addition, although the export growth of Indian cotton yarns and blended yarns has slowed down, the market is still optimistic. In April this year, India’s yarn exports amounted to 112,200 tons, up 12% year-on-year.

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