NPC professor: Xiong An needs to cultivate some uncertainty and not hurt

Xiong'an, who is "ok", needs to cultivate something "not sure"

Source: Country is a through train

A lot of uncertainty leads to a lot of profit opportunities.

What image will Xiong'an New District ultimately show, we still can't know, but how can Xiong'an New District develop well?

“The uncertainty should be fully cultivated,” said Mao Shoulong, a professor at the Institute of Public Finance and Public Policy at the School of Public Administration at Renmin University of China.

Why should Xiong'an be "not sure"?

Poor countries like to control gold, land and labor. Rich countries like to let gold, labor, land and resources be released, exert their uncertainty and make profits. As a result, the wealth of the former is often a fraction of the latter.

In this sense, everyone is generally optimistic about the Xiong'an New District, which is the concentration of land and certain opportunities. Here the state order is fully infiltrated, and the uncertainty is strictly controlled by the state order. As a result, the Xiong'an New District has only rent, no no. Determined profit.

In this sense, Xiong'an New District will obviously develop well because of the large amount of rent, but compared with the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, and even the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, the latter is full of more uncertainty than the former. Therefore, if the Xiong'an New District is to have a good development, it is necessary to fully cultivate its uncertainty, as in the economic zone of the South, and to reduce the certainty of the state order.

In the dimension of government order, uncertainty is eliminated through mandatory control. The government is the implementer of state control determinism. The government has also controlled a lot of things through coercion. Such as licenses, production, sales and purchase opportunities, household registration, etc. It is all deterministic. Here, there is only rent, no profit. The development of the Northeast depends on rent, not on profits. The development of the southeast coast relies on uncertain profits, without the rent of government policies. Shanxi Cheng also coal, defeated coal, there is a "coal curse" because there is only rent, and there is no uncertain profit.

Be uncertain, don't hurt

In the primitive social order, there is no "uncertainty", and there is a lot of "determination" in life.

In ancient times, a woman, born in squats, did not go out, can only find a cousin to fall in love, the royal family can only be chosen first to be a palace lady. Now, a girl goes to a big city, goes to the workplace, studies abroad, and goes international... There are countless opportunities to get love.

“Running away from home”, leaving your hometown and going to a distant place to fight, may also have new profits, because there is a lot of uncertainty. So Beijingers go to New York, Shanghai people go to Tokyo, and rural people go to big cities, and they make more or less profits.

A classmate, some students quickly get rich, some students still do the same, and soon form a gap between the rich and the poor, the surface is who has a good fortune, who has no interest, behind it is the amount of uncertainty.

Uncertain profits actually come from luck. This is equivalent to a bullet on the battlefield. It is a profit on the battlefield without bullets. Bullets really exist, but they are not countable. A lot of uncertainty leads to a lot of profit opportunities.

Therefore, an expanded and open social order is an order full of opportunities and a stage full of profits.

However, once the uncertainty of the state order is used, the government order is enforced, and the original social order is closed to control uncertainty, the rest will be objective wealth, and the undetermined profits will soon disappear. Society will also become poor as a result.

Therefore, the state order should reduce the uncertainty of violence, the government order should reduce the uncertainty of undue damage, the original social order should reduce the uncertainty of emotional damage, expand the market order, and increase the uncertainty of freedom.

There is no violence, no damage, no love and hate, but there is uncertainty in expanding the market. This society will be full of opportunities and full of profits.

Profit comes from uncertainty

When it comes to uncertainty, one person is determined to mention it.

Frank Hyneman Knight (1885-1972) is a famous American economist and founder of the Chicago School of Economics. The winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, such as Friedman, Stigler, and Buchanan, are his students. He is considered one of the most influential economists of the 20th century because he studied uncertainty.

The core idea of ​​Knight's economics is that profits come from uncertainty. He believes that perfect competition, complete information, sufficient rationality, and sufficient market will not generate profits. However, incomplete competition, inability to recognize uncertainty, failure to achieve full rationality, and the need to organize enterprises to deal with uncertainty, thus generating profits.

Knight said: "Since I have been concerned about economics, what I am particularly interested in is the meaning of economic theory, the necessary assumptions, and the inconsistency between theoretical and realistic conditions." This is a bit like his colleague. Professor Coase. Therefore, his first book "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" starts from the inconsistency of competition under theoretical conditions and competition under actual conditions. Starting from the analysis of perfect competition and imperfect competition, the concept of uncertainty is introduced. Distinguishing risks and uncertainties reveals the difference between theoretical perfect competition and actual competition, thus revealing the source of profit, and on this basis, studies and defines the nature of enterprises and entrepreneurs, which is different from Kos From the perspective of entrepreneurs, the enterprise is defined.

How to solve the uncertainty?

Knight also studied insurance. Insurers bring together accidental events and manage uncertainty through scale to make a profit. In this sense, companies can also deal with uncertainty by scaling up.

Of course, scale may not be able to solve uncertain problems, and professional decision-making is also an option to control uncertainty.

Therefore, specialization can also be used to cope with uncertainty by improving skilled skills and thus gain profits.

Now everyone likes to do business with partnership companies, and they don’t like sole proprietorships, because the latter will have a person who has the final say and is easy to change, and the three-person partnership will have a certainty within the competition. Certainty is manageable.

At present, everyone likes industry funds now, prefers large capital investment, and does not like separate small capital investment. This shows that large scale can control uncertainty, while small scale is difficult to control uncertainty. This shows that Knight's economics, although dealing with uncertainty, has many ways to deal with uncertainty. These methods determine whether the company is going to scale or specialization. However, whether it is to scale or specialization, it is to better deal with uncertainty.

The thing behind Knight's economics

Knight's economics research is uncertain, but his experience is very certain. It is basically a scholar's career, but there are also two bumps during the period. These two uncertain bumps can be said to give him an economic career. A little uncertainty, even made him a famous scholar and multidisciplinary professor in many aspects.

On November 7, 1885, Knight was born in a farm in Illinois, USA. Agriculture needs labor. His father used this son as a labor force. It seems that he wants to be a lifelong farmer. He was delayed in high school. This is his first bump.

However, he managed to study a small university. He obtained a bachelor's degree from Milligan College in Tennessee in 1911 and a master's degree from the University of Tennessee in 1913. After graduation, Knight entered Cornell University to study philosophy. One year later, Start learning economics.

In 1916, Knight received a Ph.D. from Cornell University, which was 31 years old. Five years after his doctoral thesis, he published the book "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit", which laid the basic theory of uncertainty in Knight's economics.

After graduating, Knight taught at Cornell University for a year, then taught at the University of Chicago for two years, then moved to Iowa because he did not get a tenure, and was promoted to professor at Iowa University. This is his second bump.

However, eight years after leaving the University of Chicago, he became a national economist and philosopher. In 1927, the famous economist Knight chose to return to the University of Chicago, where he was hired as a professor, not just an economist, because of his outstanding contributions to multiple disciplines. He has been working at the University of Chicago until retirement.

He died on April 15, 1972 at the age of 87. This shows that in the sense of the original order, he is also a scholar at the University of Chicago, and he is therefore known as the founder of the Chicago School.

Although Knight did not win the Nobel Prize in Economics in his lifetime, he has many honors in his life. In 1930, he won the famous Guggenheim Prize in the United States. In 1950, he was elected president of the American Economic Association. In 1957, he won the Francis Volcker Medal, which is the highest award of the American Economic Association. Once, before the establishment of the Nobel Prize in Economics, it was the most important economic award.

Knight's work is always writing, until he died, writing a thesis, writing a book, a book is not finished, a paper is written before the death, and will be published the following year. His main works are many, including "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit", and four Chinese translations can be found on Chinese Amazon. Zhejiang University Press published "Frank Knight's Anthology, Volume One: The Truth of Economics", which is the latest one, and Volume II is also organizing translations, which will be published soon.

Many of these works have gone beyond economics and involve topics such as epistemology, ethics, and moral philosophy. Therefore, Knight is also considered a famous philosopher, but in the economic circle, everyone cares more about his economy. The contribution of learning, especially his discussion of uncertainty, has attracted more attention.

This makes us think that the core of Knight's economics is actually uncertain economics, and Knight, as an economist, is actually an uncertain economist.

The author is a professor at the Institute of Public Finance and Public Policy, School of Public Administration, Renmin University of China.