Data Shenma is a floating cloud gold consolidation market focus on the general election

International spot gold volatility around the 1300 line on Thursday (November 3), the US market hit a maximum of 1306.40 US dollars / ounce, the lowest test to 1285.01 US dollars / ounce, the amplitude is larger. The Fed’s decision in Wednesday hinted that it might be possible to raise interest rates next month to put gold under pressure; and the uncertainty of the US election has given gold support. The Bank of England also announced on Thursday that interest rates will remain unchanged, and the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously agreed to maintain the 435 million pounds of asset purchases unchanged. The US data released during the day was mixed, and the impact on the price of gold was not very obvious. New US factory orders announced in September for the third consecutive month of growth, but overall orders fell further, indicating that the manufacturing industry is still difficult to get rid of the long-term decline; the US service industry index fell in October, and below the estimate; The US initial service purchasing managers index (PMI) in October was higher than the initial value and the last month's final value, the highest since November 2015. Although the US initial jobless claims reached a three-month high last week, they are still located. Below the 300,000 mark, the US labor market remains at a strong level.

The US dollar continued to fall on Thursday. As of press time, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 97.28 points. US stocks were mixed on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.15% to 17987.10 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.06% to 2,909.22 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.12% to 5,909.49 points. Crude oil continued to fall on Thursday, the US oil index fell 0.84% ​​to $44.96 per barrel; the oil index fell 0.43% to $46.66 per barrel.

The current Fed’s expectation of a rate hike in December and the US presidential election to be seen next week are still the main factors determining the rise and fall of gold. Analysts said the Fed’s statement on Wednesday showed that the December rate hike is a high probability event. Even the highly anticipated non-agricultural data release on Friday will not change much. Even if the data is not optimistic, the Fed will raise interest rates. . However, the current uncertainty caused by the polls between Hillary and Trump is still very important for the rise of gold. The election affects the gold situation, and the data and other influences are clouds. Therefore, some optimists say that if Trump is elected next week, gold may approach $1,400. And if Hillary is elected, gold is likely to fall by $20 or $30. In addition, in terms of physical gold, India’s demand for gold after entering the peak of the holiday season began to rise as expected. According to statistics, India's gold imports in October were 9.2 tons, compared with 3.06 tons in the same period last year, a nine-month high.

US last week hit a three-month high but the labor market remains strong

According to a government report on Thursday (October 27), although the number of US jobless claims reached a three-month high last week, it is still below the 300,000 mark, indicating that the US labor market remains at a strong level.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL), the number of initial jobless claims in the US on October 29 was 265,000, which has been maintained below the 300,000 mark for 87 consecutive weeks, the longest continuous period since 1970. It is estimated at 258,000 and the previous value is 258,000.

More data shows that the average weekly jobless claims rose by 4,750 to 275,750. The market believes that this data can better reflect the employment market conditions, because the fluctuation between weeks and weeks is removed.

In addition, the number of people who renewed their unemployment benefits in the week of October 22 was 2.026 million, which was revised to 2.04 million in the previous week.

The number of initial jobless claims is based on the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. The data is a good complement to the monthly employment report. When more people apply for unemployment benefits, it means employment is reduced, and vice versa. Investors can use the report to seek clues about economic growth, but the data is volatile.

Reuters commented that the US unemployment insurance data for the week ending October 29 said that the number of initial jobless claims was slightly higher than expected, but remained at the bottom of the 300,000 mark for 87 consecutive weeks, the longest continuous cycle since 1970; The ministry said last week that the data was not affected by special factors, but the number of unemployed initial jobless claims in Kentucky, California and Missouri recorded a significant increase.

US factory orders in September increased for three consecutive months, but the manufacturing downturn is prolonged and it is difficult to avoid

Data released on Thursday (November 3) showed that US new orders in September increased for the third consecutive month, but overall orders fell further, indicating that the manufacturing industry is still facing difficulties in getting rid of the long-term decline.

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced that factory orders in September increased by 0.3% from the previous month, which is estimated to increase by 0.2%. In August, it was revised up by 0.4%, and the previous value was increased by 0.2%.

US September durable goods orders revised down by 0.3, the previous value fell by 0.1%.

US factory orders for transportation deducted in September increased by 0.6% from the previous month, and August increased by 0.3% from August.

US September deducted aircraft non-defense capital durable goods orders fell by 1.3%, this part of the order is considered to reflect business confidence and spending plans.

In the United States, the revised value of durable goods orders for the national defense in September increased by 0.6%, and the previous value increased by 0.7%.

In the United States, the monthly revised rate of durable goods orders for transportation after deducting transportation increased by 0.1% from the previous month, and the previous value increased by 0.2%.

Reuters' US factory orders data for September said that US new orders for the factory in September recorded an increase for the third consecutive month, but the total order volume fell further or led to a prolonged manufacturing downturn.

US October ISM non-manufacturing index was 54.8 lower than estimated and lower than last month

An industry report released on Thursday (November 3) showed that the US service industry index fell in October and was lower than estimated.

According to data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 54.8 in October, estimated at 56.0, and September was 57.1.

The data is above the 50-point gap, which means the service industry is expanding.

The US sub-index of non-manufacturing business activity in October was 57.7, estimated at 59.7, and September was 60.3.

The non-manufacturing input price index for October was 56.6, the highest in August and 54.0 in September.

The non-manufacturing new orders sub-index for October was 57.7, compared with 60.0 in September.

The non-manufacturing employment sub-index for October was 53.1, compared with 57.2 in September.

The ISM non-manufacturing index reflects the level of prosperity of US non-manufacturing business activities and was developed by the association after surveying nearly 400 corporate procurement and supply managers in 60 industries across the United States. These industries include agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade.

Nieves, chairman of the ISM survey, commented that from the relationship between the non-manufacturing index and GDP in the past, the October value means that the annual GDP growth rate is 2.3%.

US October Markit service PMI final value rose to 54.8 for the highest since November 2015

An industry report released by financial data company Markit on Thursday (November 3) showed that the initial value of the US purchasing industry purchasing managers index (PMI) in October was higher than the initial value and the final value of last month, since November 2015. highest.

The data shows that the US MARKIT service purchasing managers index (PMI) in October has a final value of 54.8, with an initial value of 54.8 and a final value of 52.3 in September.

50 is a watershed that marks the shrinking or growing of the industry.

The final value of the new MARKIT service industry sub-index in October was 54.0, the highest since November 2015, with an initial value of 53.8 and a final value of 52.0 in September.

The final value of the US MARKIT integrated PMI in October was 54.9, with an initial value of 54.9 and a final value of 52.3 in September.

The final value of the US MARKIT comprehensive employment sub-index in October was 51.7, the highest since July, with an initial value of 51.5 and a final value of 51.3 in September.

Williamson, chief economist at market research firm Markit, commented that economic indicators show that US economic growth is stronger, employment growth is solid, prices are rising, and business confidence is improving, which paved the way for the Fed to raise interest rates in December; evidence It shows that many business activities are cautious as soon as the election is over; therefore, employment growth in services and manufacturing is still weak, near the lowest level in the past three years, but it is expected that the number of new non-agricultural employment in October will still reach 130,000. about.

Outlook outlook

Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said "in fact, the Fed's hawkish commentary opened up the possibility of a rate hike in December, which is not good for gold. But the poll gap between Hillary and Trump narrowed, against gold. The gains are also very important. We can see that gold will rise more next Tuesday, the dollar will retreat, and safe-haven assets such as the yen and the Swiss franc will also rise."

HSBC said in the report that "the tension in the US election has produced a lot of uncertainty and will drive the market to rise."

Shandong Gold 600547, analyst of the stock bar group Jiang Shu said that "even if the data is poor, it will not change the Fed's idea of ​​raising interest rates in December, which is very likely."

Wayne Gordon, executive director of commodities and foreign exchange at UBS's wealth management subsidiary, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that "the safe-haven nature of gold has been shown for some time. If Trump is elected next week, we think gold may approach $1400. And if Hillary is elected, we think gold is likely to fall by $20 or $30."

At 00:10 Beijing time, spot gold reported $1,289.90 per ounce, up $2.00, or 0.15%.

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(Editor: Chen Hao HF072)