Two-child policy stimulates textile demand

Since the middle of May this year, the textile market has seen a “45-degree” decline, which hit a new low during the year at 742 on October 7. It then bounced back. The highest point appeared on October 9th at 746 points. Looking at the market conditions of textile raw materials in October, the overall trend showed a slight increase and then fell slightly. As of October 31, the textile index was 743 points, up 0.13% from 742 points on October 1, but it was the highest in the cycle. Point 1074 points (2013-02-19) decreased by 30.82% (cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

Xia Ting, an analyst in the textile and textile industry, believes that from the October textile index, whether it is stimulated by crude oil at the beginning of the month, the industrial chain of PTA has risen sharply, or after the silk market has entered the mid to late period, the performance of the industry chain is still falling. Remarkably reduced, although the boost effect of “Jin 9 Silver 10” was not significant, the trend was much better than expected. In recent years, the textile industry will enter the winter in November, but this year should not be overly pessimistic.

Xi Ting believes that China's liberalization of the second-child policy will have a positive impact on the textile and clothing industry, especially the children's wear industry will once again inject new impetus. Liu Xintian, the core expert of the China Commodities Development Research Center, also stated that the medium-term textile block will benefit from the release of the two children and the conservative estimate that textile products represented by cotton will have 5%-10% demand growth in the future. It is expected that the 2016 cotton The price range will be 1,200-14,000 yuan.

Data show that in October, the prices of bulk commodities in the textile industry rose, and the number of goods in the 21 categories of textile raw materials monitored by the textile sector increased by 7. The number of goods decreased by a month-on-month, and the number of goods decreased by 11%. Two kinds, of which, the silk market became a “dark horse”, and the price of silk yarn rebounded after hitting a new low of nearly 4 years in mid-October. As of the end of October, the price of raw silk was 295,750 yuan per ton, which was a 4.01% increase from the beginning of the month and a dry price increase of 0.54%.

Xia Ting said that the purchase price of silkworm cocoon that has recently been listed has gradually increased, mainly because the quality of silkworm cocoon in Guangxi as a whole is better this year; secondly, the total cocoon production in China has been significantly reduced compared to previous years, and silkworm cocoon collection and drying work in Guangxi has reached 11 As the mid-month ends, the local cognac meets the limited production demand of the factory before the end of the year. Therefore, it provides certain cost support for the downstream silk reels, and the manufacturers have to seize the stocking demand before the end of the year.

At the end of October, the business club conducted research on 100 textile companies, and textile companies were generally not optimistic about the market conditions in November. However, Xia Ting believes that companies should not be overly pessimistic. Overall, it is expected that the textile market in November will remain weak and fluctuating, with the highest point at 743 points and the lowest point at 730 points.